Ultimately, it all depends on customer demand. If customer demand promptly rebounds to previous levels, this whole coronavirus thing will have exacerbated the pilot shortage by early retiring some pilots while interfering with training and career progression of those who do not yet have the experience and numbers to get an ATP or be competitive for a major.

Strangely, the ones that seem most likely to be hurt by this are the legacies because I think international flying will be the last thing to come back. I can actually see SWA, F9, and NK prospering in the period immediately after recovery.