Sadly wanting to travel and being able to travel are very different things. In order to justify the same amount of pilots after the Wuhan virus. There has to be 100% of Jan 2020 demand and revenue on the backside of this.

The travel industry will absolutely drop prices to get people traveling again. It’s important to remember though that these tickets being sold are still at a loss and do little to stop the hemorrhaging of money. The airlines have to be able to fill planes with passengers for ticket prices that at a minimum break even.

With unemployment rates expected to hit 30% that is a good starting point to see where air travel will stabilize. I think best case scenario the majority of airlines will be at best 30% smaller this time next year. When hiring does return, just like it always does, it will take years just to hire and train all the furloughed pilots. This is going to be a long recovery.

If you want to be optimistic just hope it doesn’t take as long as the lost decade. Payouts are going to be on the table for absolutely everyone just like they always are.

It’s great to hope for the best but airlines are like an abusive spouse. No matter how many times they beat you when mad, it does no one any good to pretend this time will be different and they have changed.

I truly hope the best for everyone.