Originally Posted by
Firefighterpilo
With unemployment rates expected to hit 30% that is a good starting point to see where air travel will stabilize. I think best case scenario the majority of airlines will be at best 30% smaller this time next year. When hiring does return, just like it always does, it will take years just to hire and train all the furloughed pilots. This is going to be a long recovery.
Not that simple. Looking at the US only it depends on what kind of flying you do, and how much....
Domestic vs. International: domestic is coming back sooner.
Business vs. Leisure: Domestic flying which is primarily leisure oriented may not come back as quickly. Despite all of the hype about everybody permanently retreating into a virtual zoom world, that's not how business is really done, especially for the Gen X and boomers who actually run businesses and organizations today (millenials might change it all up when/if they're in charge). Leisure travel will follow the economy, but business travel won't be able to wait. Obviously going to be at least some economic churn as the dust settles, IMO that will actually drive some additional business travel as people scramble to re-organize and make new relationships. That's assuming we don't retreat into a bad recession.
Depending on the airline and their business model, I think you'll see anywhere from 0-40% furloughs, some regionals may even grow as they pick over the corpses of their masters.
I think pretty much all majors will furlough, probably 10% at a minimum.