Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Not that simple. Looking at the US only it depends on what kind of flying you do, and how much....
Domestic vs. International: domestic is coming back sooner.
Business vs. Leisure: Domestic flying which is primarily leisure oriented may not come back as quickly. Despite all of the hype about everybody permanently retreating into a virtual zoom world, that's not how business is really done, especially for the Gen X and boomers who actually run businesses and organizations today (millenials might change it all up when/if they're in charge). Leisure travel will follow the economy, but business travel won't be able to wait. Obviously going to be at least some economic churn as the dust settles, IMO that will actually drive some additional business travel as people scramble to re-organize and make new relationships. That's assuming we don't retreat into a bad recession.
Depending on the airline and their business model, I think you'll see anywhere from 0-40% furloughs, some regionals may even grow as they pick over the corpses of their masters.
I work for a financial company in the North East with around 800 employees and am very close to the CEO through aviation. He is already saying that there won't be any travel for us until at least the end of 2020...Even if we re-open our offices in May or June, he will not take any chances getting all of us back in the office at once - we will be working Team A and Team B concept until at least 1.5-2 months of solid data indicating major and consistent declines in total cases...The technology use in the past few weeks has been crazy, we have never closed a major multi-million dollar loan virtually before until last week. Technology works. Now this guy running the show is in his mid-60s, not a millennial. Just saying.