Originally Posted by lbell

Having gone thru the late 90's downturn, 9-11, 2008 Economy Dump, Colgan Air Crash (implementation of 1500 hr rule), Merger-Mainia, SARS, and now COVID-19...I have learned the aviation industry ups & downs are like a pendulum on a Grandfather Clock that repeats itself every 10 years.



With that being said, the Majors missed out on the busy Summer 2020 flying. SEPT/OCT are normally slow months (great for non-rev). Travelers will begin to start flying during Nov/Dec holidays, but at a snails pace due to fear & cheap gas prices.



The Public Traveler has to get back to work, and become financially secure, before they book vacation & travel plans again. Businesses will reevaluate their travel budget, since they will have already worked thru the kinks of using Zoom for tele-conferencing



Jan/Feb 2021 will be slow, as it always is. (Again good time to non-rev).



Late March 2021 will start to pick up with Spring Break travelers. April will have increased bookings as the public is "tired of staying in" & "want to get away". This uptick in traffic will cause the Majors to increase flights for Summer 2021. The public will return and take their postponed 2020 vacations.



Now the Majors will have to hire for these increase flights, and start hiring in March/April 2021.



By the time this trickles down to the Regionals needing pilots would equate to around Sept/Oct 2021. There are enough furloughed pilots from TSA & Compass to supply the Majors (and Regionals) with a steady quality applicant pool.



Sept/Oct 2021 your Regionals will go into a hiring frenzy, to get staffed for the upcoming 2021 Holiday Travel Season. The pipeline will "dry up quickly" as Flight Schools will see a significant decrease in students between now and the next hiring boom of Sept/Oct 2021. This will cause the Regionals to increase pay & Sign On Bonuses to attract applicants to their company.



Then the pilot shortage will really hit with the 2022 retirements, increased flights, and near zero students that continued their flight training to meet ATP Minimums. If you are a new student, you should be able to get your 1500 hours by Sept/Oct 2021 (as long as you can get hired as a CFI, which may be difficult with the reduction of students actively seeking flight training) and be in the perfect spot to get hired.