Originally Posted by
contrails
This will all come down to one question: what is the new target seniority list size?
It was a 15,000 pilot airline a few months ago.
It isn't now and won't be in the next two years. The virus could end today, the damage is already done.
I wouldn't be surprised if the new goal is to have 10,000 pilots. Maybe 12,000. Who knows, maybe 9,000.
Whatever the new projected categories for next spring add up to, plus a percentage for non-active status, is what will drive this AE and determine how badly the overstaffing situation is.
If the new goal was 10,000 pilots for instance, they'd be stupid to furlough below around 11,500 because of the upcoming attrition off the top.
They have no idea what the fleet makeup will be because no one knows when the revenue wIll return. The bid will do the obvious as far as the MD88’s. The rest won’t be defined until fall. Probably some reductions in most categories. Several more bids will follow as they define the future.