4000 pilots? Might as well liquidate UAL now.

Just like UAL can only hire so many pilots (about a 1000 a year) that's also about the same rate UAL can furlough pilots. It's pretty simple in concept: UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed.

By the time UAL could furlough 4000 pilots (about 3 years assuming a massive early wave followed my max training throughput) another 1500 pilots will retire. So you are really talking about UAL shrinking 5500 pilots.

That's far more than the 30% reduction being talking about this winter and a bigger reduction than anybody is forecasting for next summer, or the two summers after that.

Deep breaths, folks.