Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
I love how the people claim doom and gloom are all usernames Iv never seen before.
Training center can’t handle 4000 furloughs in a year let alone all at once. I think we will need 9-10,000 pilots for summer 2022. Add in retirements and that’s how many furloughs I see. With recalls starting in JAN 2023. We can most likely only furlough 100 a month max.
anecdotally was talking to freind this morning who travels 4 times a week. His company told him come mid May he is going back to a normal schedule no matter what. The company has to have him travel to do business. Travel will come back because it has too or we will all be living in caves with clubs and camp fires.
Interesting thoughts. I'm a bit more optimistic, although perhaps some will argue I'm overly pessimistic. The following are all uneducated guesses.
The Spanish Flu was much more severe and deadly than COVID-19, it was obviously in a different technological era. It's hard to see COVID-19 becoming a significant endemic. From what I'd gander it will turn into something similar to a typical flu strain once the initial pandemic surge is over.
The economic and psychological recovery, I can't begin to guess as the behavior of politicians and residents does not follow data on the disease, but I digress.
In 2022 what size would the company be relative to today's size? I assume the virus will be mostly an afterthought at that point, even without a vaccine. In 2022 I'd guess the company may be 85% of it's current size, which would mean approximately 11,000 pilots. Hopefully more, possibly less?
Unfortunately I expect to be involuntarily furloughed, but I would expect recalls to begin within 2 years. I'm factoring in previous duration and impact of pandemics, previous furlough amounts and duration, projected retirements. Loose estimates, again without any formal education. Just a guess...but who knows? There many very well be another CARES Act, another grant, another loan. It is an election year and this stuff is very difficult to predict.
I like seeing the prediction of others. The consensus of them all will probably be pretty darn accurate, but I'd guess (and hope) you are little too pessimistic with your guess. It's unfortunate this has all happened, United has grown on me quite a bit in the short time I've been here. It is/was a darn good job.