Originally Posted by
89Pistons
The point of my original reply to you was to try to stop you from spreading false hope.
I never made a prediction on furlough numbers. Never will. The point of me mentioning that number isn't based on any insider information. It's only based on my understanding of the contract as it relates to displacements, the seniority demographics of each fleet, and how displacements have gone when there have been simultaneous displacements on every fleet in the company. I was here when that happened. And I can see how it's different this time.
I pointed that number out to you so that you could see that it wouldn't take a massive amount of training events to furlough in large chunks.
I love how your condescending, not so rosy outlook has stayed exactly the same for years. I think MOP knows a little more about the demographics of fleets, how the displacements, furloughs, training will work, etc. The stuff you talk about is pretty obvious and you act like no one knows this stuff already. MOP asked you for some numbers. I think the point you were trying to make can be summed up in a post I made 2 weeks ago.
“The junior 737 CA is 11101, junior 320 CA is 11659. Junior 787 FO is 12884. The junior 777 FO is 13032. Only 4 777 FO’s junior to 12884. There are 72 777 and 787 FO’s Junior to 11659. There are 132 787 and 777 FO’s and 320 CA’s junior to 11101. First displacements may be targeted around these numbers.”
Obviously, it makes sense to do a chop at 11100 to save the ensuing bump game. Still, MOP’s prediction of a 1000 Furloughs at first followed by about 100 a month is a good wag. If a handful 737 PI’s get furloughed the amount of qual crews goes down even more than 60/mo. Takes some time to make new PI’s.