Originally Posted by
JoePatroni
How many displacement bids does it take for 5,000 displacements? Do you think guys will just bid into the positions the company wants them to on every displacement bid? How much money do you save with thousands of guys racking up extra training cycles? There’s a reason they don’t do it all at once and it’s because the contract makes it prohibitively expensive on purpose.
Joe,
I said if traffic doesn’t increase from what we’re at now, they could furlough 5000 on October 1st. Here’s what I mean:
For May and June they’ve only got 10% of our previous schedule planned. That should take about 10% of our fleet right? About 75 airplanes is all they’ll need to fly the may and June schedule. Let’s say 50 narrow bodies and 25 wide bodies. 50 narrow bodies only requires about 350 f/o’s. If we aren’t flying any more than 10% on October 1st and they furlough everybody from 8000 down, they’ll still have 603 narrow body f/o’s on the property. No need for ANY displacements at all. That’s my point. Check the staffing reports if you don’t believe me. (756, bus and 737 f/o’s that are senior to 8000).
Let’s say between now and October, they decide to start flying 20% of the previous schedule. Now they need approx 700 narrow body f/o’s. They’d be a bit short so they could displace and train 100 during the next few months and have enough.
I’m not predicting this is what’s going to happen. I sure as hell hope we’re flying more than 10% of our previous schedule by then but no one knows. All I’m saying is that if traffic doesn’t increase from where we’re at now, then this furlough will go a LOT deeper than many on here think it will and could happen very quickly. The company CAN and will do this and still be in full compliance with all provisions of the contract.