Originally Posted by
Farmlover
I am 2100 from bottom and totally expect to be on the street. I’ve started to hide cash any way I can. 2nd gig and wife going to work again soon.
Furlough will happen my question is how quick after October will it get to me!
While you're wise to prepare (we should have all been prepared for this but I digress) its not a forgone conclusion that furloughs will happen, although it does seem more likely than not. Even if so, its far from being a forgone conclusion that they'll go 2100 or more deep. Assuming they do though, a good WAG IMO would be anywhere from 6 to 18 months after October for them to get to your level. You would also be offered recall likely 2-3 years or more compared to the plug.
Another thing to consider is that while "two years" is the colloquial standard for ROI of furloughs from the company's POV, they may be triggered to dip below that number a bit if short to medium term revenue (and therefore cash reserves) remain critical. Some of the costs for less than 2 year furloughs could be mitigated if they use the opportunity to simplify the fleet. If the 88/90 really does completely go away (not just the fake use of the radically misused word "parked" but truly removed from the operating certificate, etc.) along with even one more type (likely a widebody) then that reshuffle could make sense foe a shorter timeline for their furlough ROI.
In any case its smart to prepare for it at any seniority. But its not a forgone conclusion especially at your seniority. And even if it does happen and get to you, there's a huge difference between a plug furlough and a plug plus 2100 furlough.