Originally Posted by
OVC010CB
The initial fatality rate estimate for COVID-19 from the WHO was 3.8%. The newest estimate is 0.10-0.36%. 11 to 38 times less than initially feared.
I haven’t read about the newest R0 estimates. Do you have a link? The number I see is 2.6.
As more people become infected and develop antibodies it’s reasonable to assume the R0 decreases as their are less hosts able to transmit the virus.
Regarding the CFR it was never 3.8%, even from the beginning. It varies tremendously depending on age group, and normalized across the population it averages out to about 0.5% CFR. That's never changed.
Regarding the updated R
₀, CDC updated it on April 7. Way more contagious than initially predicted.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
So even with a low CFR % of 0.4%, it's so contagious it could infect 200 million Americans. Do the math. That's 800,000 Americans dead.