Originally Posted by
Excargodog
Which doesn’t change the reality. The current PCR tests available are a POS test that was too rapidly developed and too quickly fielded to be reliable, under the same sort of waivers given to the antibody testing, but that’s just part of the problem. Even when they do work they have a low predictive value positive and a low predictive value negative. But even if that could be fixed you have no fix for the fact that they are applicable at all for only a short window of detection. OF COURSE they are going to miss a lot of cases.
And yes, the antibody tests were produced under the same sort of FDA emergency waivers but that’s just it, these tests were produced under THE SAME FDA waivers which gives you no rationale for believing the PCR is any more accurate than the antibody tests and considerable theoretical evidence (not to mention the simple application of Baye’s Theorem) to suggest their predictive value positive AND negative is likely to be BETTER than the PCR testing results.
And I don’t get your “viral load” comparison with HIV testing. I’m unaware of any indication of great numbers of people being chronically infected with coronavirus and whether or not those individuals will be effective transmitters of coronavirus even if they exist.
The current commercial PCR tests available are highly sensitive and viral shedding is uniquely high for this particular virus. I would argue they are not a POS. A lot of time and energy was invested.
The studies of "asymptomatic spreaders" has been published. I don't have time on my luck break to do it right now.
The antibody tests will improve, it just takes time.
First USA studies are finally coming out on hydroxychloroquine and unverified data that has not been peer reviewed was in the NEJM today. I wouldn't be surprised if the FDA rescinded the off label authorization of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine by Friday or early next week. Another larger study will be out later this week with initial results. Even rescinded doctors would still be able to prescribe, they would just take full liability.
There is better data coming out on some other treatments. Just hang in there. I reviewed some very good data over the weekend that is being crunched... and that's one out of a dozen that I know are coming.