The initial March Imperial College London study has to date driven the policy response to COVID-19 in the US and the UK. The study predicted millions of deaths if nothing was done, since then the study has been discredited and is likely very inaccurate.

The lead study author, Dr. Neil Ferguson has made wildly inaccurate disease fatality predictions in the past, many a time.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...d-be-asked/amp