Originally Posted by
ZapBrannigan
To be fair, I think if you're in the bottom 50% of the list you're in the "could be furloughed" danger zone.
This is so unprecedented an event that there is no telling how much they'll want to cut or for how long. All we can do is be prepared.
The experts’ predictions are all over the map in terms of the overall economic future. Whether or not airline passengers will return in sufficient numbers is an additional layer to the economic puzzle.
That being said, I don’t know that a furlough won’t extend beyond 50% into the seniority list. It wouldn’t completely surprise me if we end up furloughing 60-70%.
Realistically, though, we are overmanned by 2,000 versus our traditional manning models right off the bat. I think it’s highly likely, in light of that, that we end up furloughing about 3,000 on Oct 1.
This situation sucks. Maybe things will turn around as the months progress and we’ll entirely avoid a furlough. One prominent Oppenheimer analyst just declared we’ve already experienced a bottom to the stock market and we’ve entered a new bull market. That idea doesn’t match very well, though, with what’s going on in the real economy at the moment with 20 million newly unemployed and much of the country’s and the world’s economy still shut down.