Originally Posted by
Lewbronski
That being said, I don’t know that a furlough won’t extend beyond 50% into the seniority list. It wouldn’t completely surprise me if we end up furloughing 60-70%.
Wow. Up to 70%??? So we have about 9895 pilots. So furloughing 70% would be 6962. That cut would take us all the way back to an April of 2004 hire. That would leave SWA with 2,969 pilots. OUCH. So that would leave us with a fleet of what, 250ish aircraft? With SWA having one of the best (if not the best) balance sheets among the airlines, then with these cuts I believe we would be seeing several of the major airlines fail. I find this scenario extremely unlikely.
I could see a 10%-20% furlough for up to a year simply because we have been overstaffed due to the MAX debacle. I believe as massive testing begins, the country starts to open up (this week), and people see that new cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc... are dropping rapidly, people will begin flying again. Not to 2019 levels, but they will begin to trickle back.
I also believe that the airline that can make the public feel safest aboard their aircraft will see loads increase the quickest. Once shelter in place restrictions begin rapidly easing up in the country, SWA should massively advertise the deep cleaning the aircraft undergo each night, the wiping down done in between each flight, masks and gloves worn by flight crews, agents, etc... to show us going above and beyond to keep them safe aboard our aircraft. Then flood the market with $49 gottagetaway fares.
In my opinion, SWA can survive this without furloughs with continued ETO's and sweet early retirements options to the senior folks. After all, we don't have to be profitable right away, we just need revenue coming in the door and grow it each month. The big 3 operated at a loss for years. If Covid flares back up this fall, I believe the country will have the testing in place to quarantine infected people without shutting down the entire country again. If not, we are all screwed.
But I'm a glass half full kinda guy. I'm cutting unnecessary expenses and stashing away as much cash as possible just in case. If I do get furloughed, I'll have a nice cushion. If no furlough, I can finally pay cash for that jeep I been wanting.
