Originally Posted by
AZFlyer
I'm not comparing a year to a month. The average flu season is 16 weeks long. 112 days. Nearly all of those flu deaths will occur during that time frame. The earliest COVID 19 death in the US is now estimated at Feb 7 per the CDC; 74 days ago. If the six states that are exceeding their previous flu deaths were at the same average COVID19 ratio as the remaining forty-four states, the national death toll would be around 24,000 today, well in line with a moderate flu season over the same span of time as a typical flu season. Obviously local factors are vital to identifying and mitigating problem areas and there is something very significant about the NYC area and outlying areas from NYC.
What? I specifically point out NY and NJ.
You can't compare COVID19 to the flu. It's not the flu. It's a totally different virus and doing so just gives you a bunch of false preconceptions. So, just forget about the flu. The important things that we do know about this virus are that it's extremely contagious, it has a long contagious incubation period, and it affects people disproportionately. The point of a novel virus is that it's never thinned the herd before, so it's a lottery as to whether or not you and your family are resistant. We're going to have to reopen the economy, but it's probably smarter to do it after we've learned a little more about the virus, it's strengths, weaknesses, possible treatments, and spun up the logistics chain on PPE and med equipment rather than just throwing a blind hail Mary.