Originally Posted by
Slaphappy
And more debt than all others combined. Negative equity.
I get that long term, that debt is an issue. But for right now, in this crisis, the only thing that matters is how much cash you have on hand. Being able to pay the bills and keep the lights on before you have to start burning the furniture to heat the house (layoffs, dumping aircraft, etc). AA also has $43 billion PP&E which is much more than other majors and bodes well for the company in the long term, if/when they get through this (see: cash on hand).
If you look at cash burn forecasts for all the major carriers and how long they can keep the lights on, It looks like this:
(pretty much calculated by looking at cash / cash burn. This includes debt payments)
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
AA: 4.8 months
It's just a matter of weeks difference between the big three. This doesn't include CARES act cash, so factor that in. Also consider PP&E. AA has the distinct advantage there, where in a game of outliving your competitors and taking over their marketshare when things recover they can use their assets as collateral for more loans. Whoever makes it out the other side in the strongest position will dominate.
All this to say that it's complicated, and running around only looking at debt is way too simplistic a view. OP is still a tool