The guy's an idiot, his analysis is based on perceptions of brand loyalty, total disregard for international exposure and financials including owned assets.

With just a little industry knowledge and SA, here's my take...



SWA is most likely to survive, worst case they would be last man standing if it came to that.

Big three will get bailed out, they may enter BK but I think the fed will prevent liquidation although that might even involve a surprising merger. Worst case one fails, then they save the other two.

AS/B6 about the same boat, AS financials are better, idiot is apparently not aware of that. Probably survive, maybe gain ground as the big three are distracted by sustained international downturn. Worst case, merger? If the fed saves the big three do they have to save # 5 & 6? Idiot says AS will be pushed out of west coast domestic market and be forced to retreat to Alaska... big three gonna be a little distracted bailing their international boat for market grabs

ULCC/Leisure operators: At higher risk IMO due to exposure to low-income market and vacation market, as well as *possibly* being small enough to fail if push comes to shove. Worst case, mergers and maybe one or two failures. I think these guys are most exposed if there is a deep sustained downturn. I do not think that legacy customers will flock to ULCC for cheaper fares (legacies will be offering cheap fares for a good long time).

HAL: Deep do-do. I'd be surprised if they don't merge. Asia travel is done, and the locals clearly don't want mainlanders on their islands. Maybe bail out due to unique position, but I'd guess merger more likely.

That's my off-the-cuff SWAG, and may be missing important puzzle pieces.