Originally Posted by
block30
Between the "shut down" crowd and "open up crowd" what is our common ground? Do you Agree, Disagree or shades in between with the following;
--The *case* numbers rise, but that was expected. right?
-- Total Case *numbers* will rise but *ratios*, particularly the fatality ratio, from hence forth should be fairly steady. Agree?
--COVID's so contagious the expectation was expected we will all get COVID eventually. Yes?
--Two recent studies show a REALLY low fatality rate. Rate is on par with the average seasonal flu, perhaps lower. Agree?
Supporting bullet points;
1. Stanford study states; "The Stanford study, led by Assistant Professor Eran Bendavid, concluded that the mortality rate in Santa Clara County is between 0.12% and 0.2%"
2. USC study finds; "Assuming a higher infection rate consequently lowers the disease’s estimated fatality rate, driving it from around 1 percent to just 0.12 to 0.2 percent. For the record, the death rate from the flu is about 0.1 percent."
3.Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, put it plainly: "The seasonal flu that we deal with every year has a mortality of 0.1%,”
Open Ended Final question:
--What fatality rate necessitates a shutdown?
If the Stanford and USC studies can be replicated repeatedly, that would be the best news we've had in a long darn time. Because if the fatality rate really is just like the seasonal flu, we need to rip the damn bandaid off and get this country working again.
The problem is, there's no coherent strategy to perform testing at the scale we need. Just read that of 14 available antibody tests, only 3 have an error rate below 5 percent. We're all reacting to numbers that may or may not be correct, based on testing we can't trust, with every politician from the local city council on up to the White House providing their own (often clueless) spin on things. None of us trust the news, the data, our leaders. This is what happens when one side of the political spectrum screams 'fake news' about anything they disagree with -- truth and facts are suddenly politicized and perverted to match an agenda.
The result? Even if every single politician got up tomorrow and said, 'Look, we have data, it's no deadlier than the flu', I think the vast majority of people would be too damn scared to resume their normal lives. Our Dear Leader has done such a tremendous job of attacking and discrediting the very concept of 'reality', of 'facts', that we have a major loss of public trust in news sources, in politicians, in really anything that doesn't agree with their chosen world view.
Other countries, like Germany and Hong Kong, are re-opening cautiously and, it would seem, intelligently. But to do that, you need:
1. A consensus that facts are facts, and can be reported impartially.
2. That occasionally the rights of a few (to go wherever they please, whenever they please, and ignore any recommendations such as wearing masks) may rarely have to be subsumed for the greater good.
3. A belief that by working together, we can solve this crisis. And most importantly a willingness to do so.
Unfortunately the political climate in this country has become so hyper partisan, so inflamed, so hysterical, that we are laughably incapable of any of the above. While it certainly didn't start with the reality show star now occupying the White House, his administration's relentless assault on the very concept of 'truth' has left us in a position where we have less chance of handling this thing capably than some banana republics.