Originally Posted by
Excargodog
My take?
Big three in deep kimchee. Too many fleet types to be nimble enough to respond to a changing marketplace and overhead will eat them alive.
Worst case? F9 and NK merge. In that event the two survivors of the Big Three are in very deep kimchee.
SWA I think will hold its own. Probably Alaska too
I realize that others opinions will differ but I think that international travel will be the last to come back and 20-25% of business travel never will return.
Agree with this. Legacy networks are built around feeding WB Intl capacity, and that will likely be the last segment of travel to return. Leisure will be first and carriers will be pushing low fares in order to stimulate demand, which legacies can't sustain for any length of time. Strike 3 will be lagging business travel demand. Frequent fliers won't be flying so frequently or buying last minute walk-up fares.
I'm a bit concerned about SWA not pulling down nearly as much capacity as everyone else. They must be burning some serious cash, but I don't think BK is imminent or anything that terrible. They will likely lose market share on the back side of this though.
ALK, JB, NK, F9, HA should be fine and probably come out stronger once the dust settles.