I generally tend to be very optimistic however, the data just doesn't lie. Our economy is in for a long term recession at a minimum. Mostly everything that drives travel (sporting events, vacation destinations, concerts/festivals) is canceled through this summer and many things in the fall. Most big corporations are not booking business travel till Q4 at a minimum and even that will be a trickle. I don't care what you are flying (pax,cargo, corporate, charter) the next 2 years is going to be tough going. I just don't see how we don't have at least 7-10k pilots on the street come fall and this assumes all the majors offer decent early retirement packages. If a huge amount don't take it the numbers will go up. The world economic data doesn't lie.