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Old 04-25-2020 | 10:00 AM
  #19  
Chuck D
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Originally Posted by CLazarus
I've previously speculated that we probably wouldn't retire the 756 fleet en masse, and this news certainly makes me doubt my previous guess. It is super expensive to stand up a new fleet type (training, spares buildup, updating airport procedures, etc.). But, I think the savings of suddenly retiring a fleet type are not that great in comparison, especially with fuel costs so low. The costs of displacements from rapidly retiring a somewhat senior fleet have got to be very high. A measured retirement pace allows old aircraft to be parted out smartly to keep the rest of the fleet flying and crews to be retrained with minimal displacements.

I know a 787 can reasonably do about anything a 767 can do. But, I'm curious how much of our 757-200 flying cannot be flown by anything smaller. DEN to HI or EWR/IAD/ORD to EDI or DUB come to to mind. I see they are currently removing aircraft with lie flat seating from our PS routes for the time being. If at least some of that flying doesn't start to come back by the time we start receiving the 17 Max -8s we are slated to receive sometime after the Max resumes production... well, maybe they won't unpark the 756s.

All in all I still tend to think this move could be temporary. But, the longer this bloodbath drags on the higher the likelihood it won't be. It's already dragged on longer than I ever would have imagined.
IMO enter a MAX7 order for east coast to Europe very thin routes and things like DEN-HI in 2021 Summer as things slowly get back to a new normal, w/ 321XLR added 2022 and on with 787 replacing bigger or longer routes and end of 756.

just a WAG worth about $0.00
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