Depends entirely on how many they will furlough.

In *normal* downturns, majors will furlough 10-20%, typically closer to 15%-ish. Mergers much over 30% typically mean liquidation, or merger if you're lucky.

Regionals don't directly follow that, it depends on their contractual circumstances and business opportunities (some have grown in past downturns, some have liquidated).

But if you know how many furloughs, downgrades should be about half of that number.

It would be weird to downgrade without furloughs, but since those are prevented by the CARES act you might see downgrades this summer to prep for furloughs this fall.