Originally Posted by
atpcliff
The current death rate due to the Cvirus in the US (26Apr2020) is 0.32.
Based on the US flu death rate of 0.1, and the average number of flu deaths per year (over the past 9 years, of 37,400), we should expect about 120,000 US deaths in this 12 month cycle.
The Swedish death rate as of 26Apr is now at 0.69. If we had the same rate as Sweden, we would expect about 260,000 US deaths in the 12 month period.
We had about 50,000 Americans die in combat during the Vietnam War, which lasted about 30 years. We have had 55,415 Cvirus deaths to date, so we are already over the Vietnam War casualty number...in a few months...
How do you reconcile that with the toll of the lockdown... health impact, suicide, general human misery?
You can't, because there's no math for that. So you can't stand on the numbers on the other side of the equation either. If we did that, we should just stay in lockdown forever, and save 40,000 highway deaths per year.
And if we get a big war out of this, all bets are off. Remember, page 2 of chapter 1 of Autocracy 101 says if the people get restless, find an outside agent to blame for all your troubles. The more blame that needs to be shifted, the higher the odds of war.
The epidemiology may be a fun math problem for academics and government scientists, but they do not and cannot consider the other side of the equation, the human side. That's for government leaders and elected officials, who have to consider what the voters think as well. Leaders in this country are allowed unilateral freedom of action in the initial response to a crisis... after that the people get to weigh in.
Fundamentally, we do not have to lock down to save people...
If you're at risk, think you might be at risk, identify as at-risk, or are just plain chicken THEN STAY THE HECK HOME! No possible way to get COVID at home. The rest of society can provide for your basic needs while it all blows over IF it's allowed function.
People are educated on the issues, I doubt many will jumping on planes right away, but there are plenty of other economic sectors which could be functioning with basic precautions.