Originally Posted by
atpcliff
The current death rate due to the Cvirus in the US (26Apr2020) is 0.32.
Based on the US flu death rate of 0.1, and the average number of flu deaths per year (over the past 9 years, of 37,400), we should expect about 120,000 US deaths in this 12 month cycle.
The Swedish death rate as of 26Apr is now at 0.69. If we had the same rate as Sweden, we would expect about 260,000 US deaths in the 12 month period.
We had about 50,000 Americans die in combat during the Vietnam War, which lasted about 30 years. We have had 55,415 Cvirus deaths to date, so we are already over the Vietnam War casualty number...in a few months...
Uh.., before the coronavirus came along we were having about 15,000 deaths EVERY DAY. We have three million deaths every year. With a population of a third of a Billion and a median life expectancy of ~80 years it could scarcely be otherwise.
But it ain’t a bell shaped curve of people centered on age 80. We have about 2 million people 90 years or over according to the census bureau but only ~75,000 people 100 years or over. Deaths increase radically after 80 years, chronic problems get worse, new problems develop. The metric the Preventive Medicine community uses is YPPL, that is Years of Potential Life Lost.
not all deaths are a tragedy, some in fact are a mercy. Half of the deaths in Italy so far have been in people 90 years and above with multiple preexisting conditions. That old codger that started smoking at 18 and has been doing two packs a day since he was eating C-rations during WWII is one bad cold or mild flue away from dying. H€|| yeah, encourage him to shelter in place with his oxygen tank or concentrator and wait for the general population to get this until there is enough herd immunity that he can safely leave his bedroom.
anybody who is healthy and less than 65 ought to be out and about. And that’s certainly the vast majority of airline pilots.