it’s late and I’m 2 cocktails in to my evening, so take it easy on me here...


Besides Oscar, which top executives (SVP and higher) are leaving or about to leave United? That could be a starting point for a little confidence building

The email from ALPA says that United is going to be “smaller”. What does “smaller” mean? It doesn’t mean “fewer airframes” necessarily like pilots like to think - but it likely means fewer ASMs, which are sometimes harder for pilots to wrap their heads around.

Our economy is going to process these upcoming changes by welcoming more industries home. A lot of manufacturing will be brought back to the USA and a “decoupling” from other nations and a retreat from globalization is likely to occur.

Now you have a company in Houston setting up factories in Brownsville and Oklahoma City with a warehousing and distribution hub in Chicago. Sales reps, executives, and their money are going to be traveling between those cities.

Multiply that web by thousands across the USA and, while your dreams of a cush life on “sparky” as a fabled “bunkie” dosing for dollars to kreblakistan at 0230 in the AM are dashed, you’ll likely have more than enough ASMs to fly domestically on the SNB - probably on redeyes, too.

It’s quite possible that the 787’s will see a lot more domestic action as these industries start popping up here soon. Hub to hub flights were already jammed full on 787’s and 777’s...

but wait, “new normal” you say? Hmm, not likely here to stay as once the novel coronavirus smell wears off this baby and we move on to the next crisis, people will jam themselves back into a jet again and share “remember when” stories as they cough on their neighbor’s baby during the first drink service

As a nice book end to the “executives bailing” opener, how does our order book look for the SNB fleet?

1. execs sticking around
2. industries returning to the USA
3. airplane orders not canceled

If the first three are working in our favor and we, say, fly 50% fewer international ASMs but increase domestic ASMs dramatically? Then I’m guessing we shed roughly 10-12% of our seniority list in October with the resumption of hiring in fall 2021.

I hope I’m wrong and there are no furloughs as travel returns to normal at the end of this summer. I also hope that if we do have to watch even one pilot get furloughed, that my post ages well.