Originally Posted by
Hummel75
You guys are still doing the math with pre-corona numbers. The TK training limitations don't mean a thing when you just need 1/10 of the current Pilots to fly the schedule. 1500 come October, another 1500 when the displacement training takes hold, and another 1000 in the spring depending on if the recovery can support it. With the Max coming back the Bus fleet will be gone too.
So 4000 by
next summer? I'll take the under on that bet, please. The only way it gets to 4000 that quickly is if the real number is 13000.
The training throughput is limited by the availability of sims and instructors, and not just the number of pilots available for training or required on the line. If UAL lets go that many pilots that quickly then they also wipe out a huge swath of the instructor pool. And replacement instructors are not as quick to qualify as line crews. It's a huge game a chess anytime the company wants to either dramatically grow or reduce the pilot group. Cut too deeply, too quickly and the ability to furlough actually decreases.
But, yes, I totally agree that everybody should make sure their house is in order. This will eventually impact everybody on the seniority list.