Retirements should help lessen the shock, but if every major dumps 2000-3000 in furloughs, you'll be competing against them for jobs until they can get recalled. Even if traffic returns to 2019 levels by 2022, it may take that long for anyone to start hiring. Age 65 retirements peak by 2025, but what the industry looks like by then is anyone's guess. Half the flying? Three regionals? Two majors?

In the meantime, with the numbers being graduated into the end of the pipeline, I don't think the stated minimums will change appreciably... What will change, however, is the "if you can fog a mirror and have the right paperwork, we'll put you in class and let training wring you out" method of hiring that has been the MO for the last few years at the regionals. You're going to have to bring it, and be capable of being a lot more than a lump sitting in the right seat for a few hundred hours until you grow into it. That makes the training expense to get to ATP mins much more of a gamble, especially when the promise of a very quick progression to a major and a $200K second-year paycheck just evaporated.