As crazy as it sounds, based on Allegiants model only, not other airlines, I am thinking from Memorial Day to Labor Day the average load factors as far as Florida, Arizona, and Las Vegas will be in the mid 70s with a trailing mid 80s towards the end. As soon as the strip and theme parks are open with a little lead in for phasing of opening, people are gonna want to get away and have some fun. Just read any forum, comments to articles etc. People are tired of being pent up and want to normalize (in general). Yes unemployment went crazy, but it will only have been for a short time and a lot of people are making more money staying home anyways with the stimulus.
The kicker to all this is that Allegiants payroll has been paid up thru September 30 so when load factors get up there, they are making gravy on those flights.
Now come next winter......who knows.

What do you think?