No one can predict a downturn to a specific date, but only an idiot wouldn’t expect an eventual downturn or several downturns in a 40+ career. Only join a major airline list you want to forever remain on. Seniority is the only buffer you have against eventual, predictable, and historical dark years the airline industry reliably delivers. The happiest pilot, is a pilot that spends his airline career on one list for 30+ years. Jumping around will get you screwed. Complaining about how your seniority isn’t affording you x,y, and z during a downturn should solidify the ramifications of the airline seniority system. If you stay on the same list, next go around it won’t be you complaining; but if you jump around it will be you every time with every downturn. Chill on the complaining and learn from the life lesson.