I think there will be a quick resolution to the WuFlu and we get back to a "normal" world. Unfortunately the damage to the economy is real, and we won't snap back in a V. I would guess a "normal" bad recession furlough. They might plan and train to a 30% furlough, but they can't furlough until Oct 1 because of the PP program.

Retirements going forward should reduce the furlough numbers by the time they have to make a hard decision.

United has a mix of old and new planes. The older ones are going away forever. Just like the last 2 times.

The world's globalized supply chain is a complete shambles. Trying to unscrew that will take many months, during which passenger wide bodies may be in high demand to fly cargo below the floor. That might cushion the blow for a few months.