Originally Posted by
Probe
I think there will be a quick resolution to the WuFlu and we get back to a "normal" world. Unfortunately the damage to the economy is real, and we won't snap back in a V. I would guess a "normal" bad recession furlough. They might plan and train to a 30% furlough, but they can't furlough until Oct 1 because of the PP program.
Retirements going forward should reduce the furlough numbers by the time they have to make a hard decision.
United has a mix of old and new planes. The older ones are going away forever. Just like the last 2 times.
The world's globalized supply chain is a complete shambles. Trying to unscrew that will take many months, during which passenger wide bodies may be in high demand to fly cargo below the floor. That might cushion the blow for a few months.
Sounds like reasonable guesses. But please remember that they are still only guesses. There have been no decisions on fleet retirements or furloughs yet. I agree that it's extremely likely we'll see both in decisions in late Jun/early Jul, but we still have decision space.
Our displacement process is expensive and time consuming for the company, so it's not unexpected for them to get the ball rolling early. They can adjust as things change and the future becomes more clear. We've only been shown part of the picture...let's not overreact.