Originally Posted by
Karnak
When we see the displacement bid, it might help to remember that it's based upon the plan "for now". It'll change. Always has. The Company will adjust numbers, timing, and other variables as the marketplace evolves. They'll watch our peer airlines, and will react tactically (to grab revenue), and strategically (to grab long-term market advantage) as much as possible.
Under our PWA they have the ability to to cancel bids, displacements, and furloughs. They can "overstaff" at any level they deem necessary to be flexible. They've been known to do some stunningly stupid things, but I can't recall a time when they've left positive revenue out there.
If you have a 5-digit seniority number, keep the faith. The Good News/Bad News sine wave [[color=#222222]yx=0
= − A sin ωt 
] will give you an ulcer if you let it. Reach out (from a safe distance) to those who sat on the bubble after 9/11. Hopefully, some of them can weigh-in here to share the wild ride ride of "will I or won't I?" back then. This is a slightly different species of hurt, but the emotional stability to weather it is the same.
A wily captain I flew with 33 years ago told me, "
Things are seldom as good or as bad as they first seem."
9/11 was the event that allowed the airline industry to quickly do what was coming anyway.
I've posted this before but it's relevant to keep in mind. The airline industry was in shambles on 9/10/2001, they just hadn't told anybody yet. Years of chasing "marketshare" at the sake of profits, fostered in a climate of cheap oil, made the industry grow way ahead of their skis for a few years.
When the 9/11 attacks took place and a total of 4 wide body planes were used on cross country flights and a TOTAL of like 260 People (that includes all the employees, pax and terrorists) were killed in all 4 flights (2x757, 2x767). The UAL flight that crashed in PA had like 37pax onboard for example. That was the state of the industry, hence it was RIPE for consolidation in the years following, but only after years of painful shrinkage, trips through BK court to shed a majority of pensions, extra aircraft etc.
Best of luck to us all, but going into this COVID19 event, airlines were at 90% load factors, incredibly cheap oil. There will be more pain going forward, but people will fly again and if the US can keep it together may come out stronger as many foreign airlines are suffering even worse potential fates.