2678 is a high side estimate at how many guys systemwide are going to wind up as Bus/737 FOs. I’ve been on my back all day after a workout mishap, so I decided to figure out what I alluded to above. I did it by looking at displacements at each major hub and seeing where they could be displaced to within their current base.

I came up with 2678, but that is almost certainly the high end. Why? I didn’t try to guess if a displaced DEN 737 CA or LAX 787FO would bid over to SFO 777 FO. Odds are a couple hundred pilots will do exactly that, as the Eight Ball Jr SFO 777 FO out of this is seniority #7301 (vs. 6801 for the senior most DEN 737 CA being displaced. If he stays in DEN he’ll be a Bus/737 FO).

Does 2678 equal future furloughs? Way too soon to know. Could be more than this after follow on displacements if flying doesn’t come to life. Could be much less if flying does come back and displacements get cancelled. Also, we have roughly 50 Max aircraft coming our way within 12 months when the grounding ends and they will certainly pick up a lot of the PS flying as the 757 fleet shrinks. I think the 17 Max 8s we have coming will take the DEN to HI flying too. So the proportion of Bus/737 FOs company wide is going to to rise no matter what the final damage is. Even if flying comes back at a painfully reduced level over the next year, I think we might top out well below 2678.

One thing this exercise makes clear is that the 4476 line pilot displacements does NOT equal anywhere near 4476 furloughs. Sadly, with the company starting the displacement training ball rolling ASAP it will make it easier to have a very large first round of furloughs this fall. God Save The Ball.

Here is the picture for each base:
245 - DCA
147 - DEN
723 - EWR
203 - IAH
270 - LAX
318 - ORD
772 - SFO
———-
2678

I was surprised to see such high numbers for EWR/SFO, but I doubt they are an accident on the CO’s part. Knowing how many super Jr guys in these bases are going ashore with the first wave, all of those EWR/SFO displacements make uncomfortable sense.

If someone has better visibility and can crunch numbers to boot, I’d be all ears to what you have to say. But if you just want to throw out random or cherry picked numbers and start arguing about them I’ll pass. Should have used the time today to update my resume...