Originally Posted by
dynap09
Is this still true that there is guaranteed not to be larger number of furloughs? It seems at least 1,000 - 2,000 will come off the list. Don't want to "fear monger" but what math are people using that says all the pilots on the list are needed...
There has never been any guarantee. One of life’s greatest fears is the unknown. Pilots have learned to identify risks and attempt to account for variables to control the destiny of our mission, but in this important area we cannot control or even quantify the variables. This forum is a subset of pilots especially motivated to seek out like-minded folks to attempt to get more information...to make the unknown, known...to reduce our fears, or perhaps our misery (it loves company, right?). At the end of the day, all we are doing is speculating and then venting, and there’s actually some good that comes from it. Do we realize this as a form of therapy? Hopefully, we can offer each other support and healthy advice and minimize the hostility (politics or otherwise “taking sides”) as that is what most of us really want and need.
If you can return to active mil, do it.
If you are in the bottom 1000-2000, the job market will only get more competitive going forward. Act as if you already have your notice and divert NOW before you are min fuel and back in the pack headed for the same alternate. Take a COLA if you find a job.
Use this chance to reinvent your career with school and/or pursue something completely different that you can perhaps continue alongside a piloting job when you get recalled.
Focus on your family and anticipate the stress to your relationships. Use SOAR / seek counseling sooner than later.
Cut the older, senior pilots a little slack WRT sensitivity as many don’t have the years or options to begin another career.
The seniority-based nature of this job makes it especially unequal / unfair during downturns...it is almost impossible to spread the pain without cratering our contract and ruining the very job we want to keep. It has been pointed out, and I concur, that in previous drops, QOL was worse as a junior pilot on the list than it was on furlough.
The company talking points have rested on 30% reductions for now...not necessarily pilot furloughs, but that is the current “bogey.” There are too many variables to make educated guesses IMO, but if we stay on the current glidepath, I’m understanding that we will be ~70% in a year.
This too shall pass.
Stay safe, stay healthy, stay sane.
D