Originally Posted by
Purpleanga
You should probably get really comfortable for a multi year aviation downturn, instead of checking daily TSA numbers. The last one lasted almost 3 years and that was without a deadly pandemic.
Hey, all I’m saying is that the gross TSA numbers are sort of a lagging indicator of what you are really looking for in assessing how long that downturn is going to last. What would be more instructive is how many people are on the first leg of a round trip, for which ticket sales would be a better indicator. The return trip generally follows about like the tail follows the rest of the dog.
and personally, I don’t think anybody has a clue as to what will happen until it really DOES happen. The modeling has been all over the map on this one and most wound up being quickly disproven and - worse - politicized.