Originally Posted by
gloopy
I agree. While I don't think 2019 numbers will happen this year of course, it seems like a very realistic possibility that the company could panic/groupthink into irreversible spastic reductions just in time to lose out on many billions in revenue, profit and even long term marketshare in some situations. That's why significant excess airframes and staffing has to be carried in one form or another for a while to see how this shakes out.
I suspect the unemployment rates are concerning management. I agree there will be a bump this summer with pent-up demand, however, once the stimulus money runs out and states have to pay unemployment compensation to an all-time record number of people, we may see states go bankrupt in Oct/Nov (just before the election).
Obviously a worst case scenario, but I think it’s a legitimate concern to management and that when all of the consequences on this shutdown shakeout, we’ll be in the throws of a significantly constrained economy that will take a few years to crawl out of.
Duhhh, right? It’s encouraging to see positive trends, but the country (and world) is going to have big bills to pay this fall. Management has to balance risk, survival, opportunity, fleet sizing, etc. I predict one of the majors will be too optimistic and end up in BK or worse.