100% depends on AA, and I have no way of knowing. Some of their guys think they won't furlough, others think they're going to furlough 100% of the pilot group. Need to see how the economy and travel bookings shape up over the summer to even guess.

Worst case, a vastly smaller AA will still need regional feed, but it might not need the capacity and overhead of multiple WO's.

Majors are fairly predictable in a downturn (unless it comes to liquidation). Furlough X% for 2-6 years, gut contracts in BK, and in ten years you can almost forget it never happened.

Regionals' fates can run the gamut, all depends on partners, business model, and contracts (and luck/timing with contract expiration). Some regionals can make out and actually grow, others will go away (some already have, maybe they've already met the quota).