Originally Posted by
Firefighterpilo
Serious question. Why do you feel this downturn will pick up faster then the previous ones? Unlike in the past this has caused a world wide aviation catastrophe with airlines all over the world shedding pilots and parking planes. Plus there is no end insight with a vaccine timeline. Not even to mention the devastation to our economy and the world, exasperated by the oil bust
911 was a single day event that took over 5 years to recover from and this has been going for months with no end insight. I believe there will be an initial bump of traffic with people just looking to travel after the quarantine but do not feel it will be sustainable. The following article highlights people feelings
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...avirus/611335/
The Atlantic is a little liberal for me but I enjoy reading sites from all political spectrums. It does bring up some great point many potential travelers are feeling.
I believe this will be a much slower recovery but am all ears to counter opinions? I try to look at all sides of a given position.
JP Morgan recently released a report estimating 10-12 years to a full economic recovery. But I’m not totally sure what that is predicated upon. Does that assume a gradual return to normalcy beginning now? A month from now? 6 months from now?
At this point it’s clear that the lockdown has done immeasurable harm and- I’m not trying to be political here- but I wish the mainstream media would acknowledge that the initial models were off by orders of magnitude and the harm done to individuals around the world as a direct result of putting life on hold may actually surpass the damage done by the virus itself. About 70,000 “deaths of despair” are estimated because of the effects of the lockdown, calls to suicide hot lines have increased 1,000%, not to mention the millions at risk of starvation in 3rd world countries as supply chains get disrupted, increased substance abuse, domestic abuse, divorce, and so on and so forth. So it’s clear that this is unsustainable, but the question will be at what rate we can get things back to normal. Sweden has shown a positive trend toward herd immunity, and Georgia recently reported the lowest number of new cases since hospitals began recording that data- even as they begin reopening their economy.
Anyway, I’m as optimistic as the next guy, but I’m preparing myself for a long road to recovery.