Originally Posted by mathteacher

I apologize if I upset folks. My sense is the company has a far better feel about who will be gone (a dumb **** math teacher can do something like it in an hour) and it doesn't seem fair not to arm guys with a tool to see what might be as to probabilities. The software is cheap, just look for a Monte Carlo simulation.

To be completely transparent I had a UAL bud take his furlough really hard and end up in a rough spot and I've carried a lot of guilt since he kept the faith and then went out the door without much to work with.

Just going with the numbers, Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Remember I don't know jack about airline operations, so on top of the numbers I gave as a result you have to peanut butter all the overhead pilots UAL lugs around like PIs, Standard Captains, Management Dudes and Dudettes, Mil Leave, LTDs, etc...so if I say a number of whatever, 9500 in January 2022 then you'll have whatever we carry as overhead, which could be what...another 1000 pilots? I have no idea. Then factor in retirements, and again it could be another few hundred. Someone asked about the unemployment rate...at that time, January 2022 ... if this recession acts like others as far as job recoveries the unemployment rate looks to be about 11-12% U6 with the reported one of 7-7.5%. If we model the 1982 recession...very slow unemployment recovery....the numbers get worse. Pilot employment has a strong connection to unemployment, I know a brilliant flash of the obvious...but that is what drove my model. If you want a good feel for unemployment B of A runs predictions every month that look pretty solid.