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Old 05-09-2020 | 06:38 PM
  #83  
Lewbronski
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Joined: Feb 2018
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Originally Posted by TheBlueBaron
Great work on these charts Lew. Thanks for sharing. I know there are a ton of variables, but if trends were to continue as shown by the chart, how long would it take to reach 1 million travelers? How about 2 million?

Thanks.
No problem.

The low occurred on April 14 (a Tues) at 87,534. Yesterday, there were 215,444 travelers, an increase of almost 2.5x over the low. The week of April 12 marked the low week since the covid crisis started. The week after that (April 19) increased an average of 11.4% over the week of April 12. The week of April 26 increased an average of 25.4% over the week of April 19. And this week has also averaged 25.4% over last week (so far).

If each week were to continue to average a 25% increase in travelers over the week before it (a BIG if), then we'd exceed one million travelers per day by the first full week of July. We'd go over two million travelers per day by the week of Jul 26. The next week would beat last year's numbers. Obviously, something will break down between now and then. But every little bit helps. If we can get to 40%, 50%, or even 60% of last year's numbers by the end of summer, I'm sure we'd all feel a lot more secure.

If there is any kind of actual causative relationship between daily covid cases or the number of open states and traveler throughput, then an increase in daily covid cases or states being forced to close back up because of an outbreak could negatively impact the numbers.
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