Originally Posted by
Itsajob
Being that 30% of our list is around 4,000 pilots, considering what is going on, and how many analysts predict the recovery will play out, “only furloughing 2,300” could be viewed as an optimistic position. Furlough notices can go out in June for an October 1 effective date. From how I read the furlough section of the contract, none of those pilots would need to be trained according to a displacement award. Simply holding them at their current pay and then furloughing will be cheaper than training them. It will also free up slots at TK for those who will survive this cut. I don’t like how this is turning out, but this bid is definitely a pretty effective way to reduce quickly while adhering to the contract.
To go beyond what we might be seeing on this displacement, they would need to displace yet more guys into NB seats (I think to include NB CA seats). I assume already there will at least be a small displacement after this one just to tweak the numbers. But, if there is a big displacement after this one hold onto your jockstrap. One positive thing to keep in mind is how easily large portions of this displacement could be reversed if things improve. LAX 787 CAs and FOs who bid into SFO will need little to no training if LAX 787 comes back within a year.
Originally Posted by
JimLaheyTPS
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
I haven't tried to figure out how many NB CAs we will end up with at the end of this bid. But, when the results come out it might be possible to estimate what comes next. For example, we currently have about 3100 Bus/737 CAs and 1032 of them are being displaced. If 400 displacees wind up as Bus/737 CAs, we'd be at about 2500 NB CAs. I assume the CO would want about an equal number of NB FOs.
Like Motch says, it really is too soon to tell how this will end up. But now you've got me thinking about how many guys might be displacing to NB CA....
P.S. Motch - Holy Schnikes! Reading your dissection of Mathteacher, remind me never to get on your bad side! Glad you are recovering.