Originally Posted by
whaler
Divide the min/max # by your # in base could give a ballpark baseline. Assumining they furlough those those extras on the NB. It seems there are over and unders in all seats and ac up the list and how that shakes out in round two is unknown and to complicated for me to predict but I'd like to hear other thoughts.
The problem with predicting "the number" is inherent to the unique situation. We've never been here before.
The company has ingeniously (not that we like it) figured out a solution to the restrictions in the UPA that provides maximum flexibility to the company. This would not work in normal times, but we are not in normal times. Thus, they can pretty easily furlough anywhere from 0% to 20% on Oct 1 with only minimal pain for an additional 10% beyond that. If they need to furlough more than that, it means nobody is flying so trained crews are not an issue anyway.
Meanwhile, everybody displaced to a narrow body will only require a short course when they return to their previous aircraft during the rebound. The company can move staffing levels in any direction with lots of atypical flexibility permitting a much more rapid 'return to normal' if that occurs.
But for us pilots, we can only guess what staffing levels will be required this fall and for next summer. If it helps, and it doesn't, I don't think anybody else knows that number for sure either. Everybody is guessing and nobody knows.