Originally Posted by
Aquaticus
30% less than 2019 numbers in summer of 2021 would include 800 pilots gone to retirement, maybe 200 or so to medical outs, whatever furlough mitigation or early outs the union comes up with, and sprinkle in an insanely expensive process.c I wouldn't call it optimistic that 2300 number is still a lot of guys trying to provide for their families and includes myself. If you furlough a pilot you can core4 them as much as you want but you have lost them forever. Just think of the cost of icey cold guppies and two engine taxi outs for 30 years. A lot of ballgame ahead.
I don’t think anyone thinks for a second that 2,300 is a small number, or that families won’t be affected. Training displacements when pilots are just sitting around isn’t nearly as expensive as other times when we were retiring a fleet, but demand was still high. It would stink, but they could easily chop 3,000 on October 1 if revenue is still down. That would allow them to drop a bunch of payroll/benefit expense off of the books quickly. The recall process will cost money, but that won’t happen until sufficient revenue is coming in the door. The other labor groups could be let go even more quickly. There isn’t that much time or expense in training ramp workers for example. If the company is at X% on October 1, those groups get slashed 100-X% day one. It isn’t what we want, but what the company will need to do. Starting October 1, they are going to get all cost, including pilots, to a level that allows the bleeding to stop. Furlough and displacements stink. Many of us have been down that road before, some more than once. I hope that you don’t get furloughed, and I get that you’re just lashing out, but if you do, I hope that when you come back you will act professional. Others have been through furloughs, bankruptcy, and a merger. They still act professional, and I expect that most people will as well.