Boeing CEO is predicting one of the airlines could easily go bankrupt:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boe...ps-51589294871
And it’s widely assumed he means one of the Big Three./
I actually think domestic flying will return fairly quickly. It’s international flying that will badly lag. The reason that targets the Big Three is that they DO most of the international flying. The big problem is the aircraft types they do that with, disproportionately long range wide body aircraft that are optimized for that function but are less economical and adaptable for domestic use. For domestic use the single type airlines like SWA,NK, and F9, Have a HUGE advantage In the present situation with JetBlue and Alaska close behind.
The reason for that is that the WB international stuff pays more and the senior pilots tend to be disproportionately in those aircraft. So when they go to shrink to 3/4 size, what happens? The aircraft that are actually being flown domestically are Disproportionately single aisle narrow body with relatively junior crews. Well, you can’t furlough those junior crews until you have someone to replace them. Those people must be drawn from the senior people. But you’ve got a fleet that has nine Different type Ratings (Delta and AA) or Six different type ratings (United) which starts a training cascade. Some of these senior guys who are being displaced last previous type rating was for a 727 or some other aircraft not in the inventory but even if they once flew a 320, they are going to bid down to whatever pays the mist at a base they want, That starts a training cascade. Furloughing one quarter of the most junior guys can easily cause five training events, half of them type ratings, which will overload any training department in existence. It will also take time - time in which your most expensive pilots will be collecting pay without contributing any revenue production. In the interim the multi fleet airline simply BLEEDS money. And even when it is finally accomplished, they will have eventually retained the more expensive very senior guys with relatively less productivity (because their seniority entitles them to more vacation, etc,) who will have to be retrained back into their old aircraft if the recovery proceeds.
By comparison, F9 (for instance) simply furloughs their junior FIs and downgrades their junior captains with little muss, fuss, training, or displacement cost. They are not doing multiple type rating training fir every junior guy they let go because everyone at F9 already has a 320 type rating from F9.
That is the difference, and it is a huge one.
With no shortage of available gates or aircraft, cheap gas, and cheap used aircraft and parts, the cost per seat mile will be the main factor in determining survival, and this will hugely favor the single type fleet airlines. I expect SWA, F9, and NK to take considerable domestic market share from the Big Three. Even Breeze , who wasn’t expected to make a profit the first few years anyway benefits because they will have cheap aircraft, cheap fuel, Readily available Mx personnel, and not a single pilot on the list over first year pay while the Big Three (or by then Big Two) might not have any on the list under year five pay.