#notanexpertopinion but I keep coming back to summer 2021 being the reference point that will drive furloughs. I’ve got to assume along the lines of Delta, we might be forecast at 7k or even more over staffed for this fall/winter. But if we turn a corner towards a stronger (say around 80% of peak) next summer, we can’t draw down this fall so much that it’s impossible to ramp back up to that figure.

so my guess is the company would aim this fall to furlough deeper than the summer 2021 forecast but still able target the optimistic pilot count by the time summer rolls around. They can tweak from that if demand remains low. Not sure how long it takes to requal pilots off furlough or even requal instructors but as was said if we lost say 4K in one cut that would eviscerating instructor ranks which would I assume really put a drag on ability to rebuild quickly.