Originally Posted by
TheBlueBaron
So we I see we have 400 planes parked and we've cut capacity 30% going into the fall. We were overstaffed to begin with and have just shy of 10,000 pilots. (I have no idea how many are out on some sort of leave).
My simple math would indicate we would need to trim the list by 30%ish which would be roughly 3000 pilots. Even with a super sweet VSP, EETO, ETO, etc... I cannot imagine we would get anywhere near that number. Even if we took some sort of concessions (ALV, etc...) how do we not involuntary furloughs later this year?
I am a glass half full guy and an optimistic person overall. However, this is putting a lot of pressure on my positive outlook. What am I missing here? Truck driving school this fall maybe????
So we’re 3,000 pilots overstaffed in fall 2020, roughly 30% based on our forecasted schedule. Delta estimated that they would be 7,000 pilots overstaffed in fall, roughly 50%. They also indicated that they would plan their staffing based on fall of 2021 which would be 2,500-3,500 overstaffed. Makes sense not to furlough based on this Q4 given that people will need to be recalled fairly quickly. It also makes sense that they are more overstaffed and will have a slower recovery because of their international exposure.
If we follow their model we would be 1,000-1,500 pilots overstaffed for Fall 2021. That number is hopefully attainable with voluntary measures. With the cash pile SWA has and their typical aggressive nature I’m optimistic that there will be no furloughs. Just look at how much more of a schedule we are flying now compared to the competition. In some cases we are the only option.