Originally Posted by
ZeroTT
1) at some point, it’s that one more thing that gets you. Right now, as the kids say, it’s “all the things”. Not saying zoom will do it alone; I’m saying zoom hurts and it’s not minor
2) as noted above, losing 10% of your most profitable customers is non-trivial
3) even if zoom ultimately reduces travel by 0% it could still cause bankruptcies if companies take two years to try and reject it meanwhile Starving airlines of their most profitable customers for that many more months.
the biggest unanswered question is how fast things come back. Every month longer is more structural change
Originally Posted by
ZeroTT
If it ultimately takes 10% of (high margin) business travel and pushes the recovery out 12 months, that could tip a major into bankruptcy
All I'm saying is that we are shrinking at the majors. Retiring fleets that aren't efficient, and shrinking the pilot group through retirements and halting hiring. They will come out more efficient in the long run.
You just said that a 10% reduction would tip us in to bankruptcy, and while I know you are saying it is in conjunction with other factors I just don't see that as true. I also don't know who came up with a 10% reduction in travel as a result of zoom, but I seriously question that number too.
This technology has existed for a long long time. I have people close to me who have worked entirely remotely long before this. If you're arguing that being forced to do meetings virtually finally opened these businesses eyes to the fact that virtual meetings are possible, aren't you also arguing that they are ignorant and stupid? That's the only way they wouldn't realize the possibility to do this virtually when it could have saved them millions. I don't buy that, and I think people meet face to face for a reason.
During the AA hiring process you do a video interview first. After passing that, you are brought in for a face to face. They know that small details that make all the difference can be impossible to perceive over a screen, and they pay a lot of money to see you in person.
Long story short, I think they will do meetings virtually for a little while, but once they deem it safe the vast majority will resume face to face interviews.