Some factors that haven’t been talked about here about these displacements:

1) Have you looked at the displacement list? A rough skim on my part guesstimates over 70% of those displaced chose a different fleet. I have no idea how many of those will require the full course(Those that have been off that airplane for more than 60 mos), but I’m guessing a high percentage.

2) Training won’t be beefing up for Jun on displacements. Training has already posted The Jun schedule and they can’t add training to our schedule after it closes. There are some creative things they can do with instructors on reserve, but it would be a disaster for training, especially qual training.

3) July- Unless the company offers and instructors choose to trade vacation months in July, this is the least staffing month TK has. My guess is 30% have at least 1 week of vacay. Instructors might be begging for overtime in last 6 months, but that taste might dry up if these same instructors get a furlough letter on Jul 1. So while qual courses will happen, it would be no where near capable of 55/month is July or even August. We won’t be able to do those numbers till Sept.

4) I think someone said a lot of FO/FO pairings, but there’s gonna be a lot of CA “downgrades” from 75/767 and Airbus-737, 787/777-Airbus, etc. It will take forever to train this, and if they do cut 2500, they will lose 50% of the 737 instructors. Conversely, on the Airbus fleet, that would cut like 2% or so...very senior instructors.

5) Have you noticed how little the number of flights to DEN there are from other hubs? Getting people to/from training is much harder now too, which means cnx’ed sims and lost sessions due to misconnects. Good thing we pushed all training to DEN, instead of spreading it around the system. 🙃

This disaster of a displacement is just that, a disaster. I don’t think they have intentions of beefing this up. I think these are doing it just to try and “cut costs”, but it’s kinda like the APU nazi’s, it’s not gonna Dave much since it’s gonna trigger so much training and they can’t furlough all those instructors/etc. I would not want to manage this train wreck. You though scheduling was bad when you had happy new hires that showed up every day. Combine that with COVID, ****ed off double, now potentially triple furloughees, hotel space and cleaning, and you have a recipe for an exploding schedule.

I think the quick trigger on the displacement bid was an attempt for the company to get as many volunteer furloughed off to other jobs. We don’t have nearly as many military hires since the merger as Southwest or Delta(our managements fault). Those military we did hire in past 7 yrs have been mostly old hires (retirees). This will hurt badly when furlough numbers happen, because not as many will go back to military, and not as many have options of “Trough-ing” in the reserves to reduce their line value and give more flying to other active line holders.

We will probably be hurt more than other companies in this. Our training costs more than others, which is good for is to dissuade this type of action. We have more international than anyone else(Pan-Am/TWA anyone?). We need to put those wide bodies on domestic hubs to and from competitors hubs and make flight cheap as crap to incentivize travel. People are gonna book if they see cheap fares, not $1000 “COVID friendly” courtesy service. If we don’t start flooding with cheap fares, we are gonna have a really hard time.